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We just released the below Intelligence Note.
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IntelCenter
Intelligence Note
“Possibility of Another Major Attack in Near Future”
9 November 2003
Classification: FOR PUBLIC RELEASE
http://www.intelcenter.com

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
There is a high possibility of another major al-Qaeda operation occurring in the coming weeks that is designed to follow the 8 Nov.attack in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In addition, there is also a high threat of low-level al-Qaeda operations and major operations from al-Qaeda affiliates occurring during the same period.

ASSESSMENT
Prior to 9-11 al-Qaeda successfully executed major operations at a rate of about one every 1-2 years and conducted little or no low-level attacks of significance. In the post-9-11 period, the rate of attack has more than doubled. With two major attacks in 2002 and three major attacks so far in 2003. In addition, the group has initiated a second-tier of low-level operations such as the shooting in Failaka, Kuwait against US Marines and the crashing of a fuel
truck into a synagogue in Djerba, Tunisia. Al-Qaeda affiliates have also stepped up their operational activity to a level never before seen. We can no longer expect 12-month periods to pass between attacks.

In 2002, there were only 53 days between the attack on the French-flagged oil tanker, The Limburg, and the SAM attack and vehicular bombings that occurred in Mombasa, Kenya. During May 2003, there were only three days between the vehicular bombings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and the suicide bombings in Casablanca, Morocco.

Speaking about its operational tempo in a book released on 3 September 2003, entitled “The Attack of 11 Rabi 1: The Operation of East Riyadh and Our War with America and Its Allies”, al-Qaeda wrote, “It is necessary to realize that the al-Qaeda organization in its war with Americans relies on strategically expanding the domain of the battle and the exhaustion of the enemy, which imposes its interests over the world, with successive and varied attacks. The rate of attacks before 9-11 was one operation every two years but after the blessed Manhattan attack the rate increased to more than two operations per year and the battlefield expanded, priceless advantages. So the enemy that needed only to protect its own land now needs to protect its vast interests in every land. Every time the rate of attack changes their exhaustion grows.”

There is a high possibility of another major al-Qaeda operation occurring in the coming weeks that is designed to follow the 8 Nov. attack in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In addition, there is also a high threat of low-level al-Qaeda operations and major operations from al-Qaeda affiliates occurring during the same period.

MAJOR ATTACKS BY AL-QAEDA (Does not cover low-level al-Qaeda Ops or Affiliate Ops)
– – 7 August 1998 – Vehicular Bombings – US Embassies in Kenya & Tanzania
– – 12 October 2000 – Vehicular Bombing – USS Cole – Aden, Yemen
– – 11 September 2001 – Piloted Vehicular Assaults – WTC, Pentagon, US Capitol (failed) – US
– – 6 October 2002 – Vehicular Bombing – The Limburg (French oil tanker) – Mukalla, Yemen
– – 28 November 2002 – Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) Attack – Israeli Arkia Flight 582 – Mombasa, Kenya
– – 28 November 2002 – Vehicular Bombing – Kikambala Paradise Hotel (Israeli-owned) – Mombasa, Kenya
– – 13 May 2003 – Vehicular, Suicide Bombing – Jedawal Compound -Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
– – 13 May 2003 – Vehicular Bombing – al-Hamra Compound – Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
– – 13 May 2003 – Vehicular, Suicide Bombing – Cordoval Compound – Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
– – 13 May 2003 – Bombing – Saudi Maintenance Company (Siyanco) – Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
– – 16 May 2003 – Suicide Bombing – Restaurant (Israeli ownership) – Casablanca, Morocco
– – 16 May 2003 – Suicide Bombing – Spain House (Spanish social club/restaurant) – Casablanca, Morocco
– – 16 May 2003 – Suicide Bombing/Vehicular Bombing (unconfirmed) – Israeli Alliance Circle Club – Casablanca, Morocco
– – 16 May 2003 – Suicide Bombing – Farah Maghreb Hotel – Casablanca, Morocco
– – 16 May 2003 – Suicide Bombing – Jewish Cemetery – Casablanca, Morocco
– – 8 November 2003 – Vehicular Bombing – Muhaya Housing Compound – Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

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