Putting together a monster predictions post is always daunting. I remember the first time I had to do one, Pete started bugging me all the way back in November for it, and I didn’t get it done until the second week of December.
That week has come and gone this year, so I’m going to try something new.
I’m going to, for my reflections post, go back to my old predictions for 2008 and 2009 (did I do one for 2009? I’ll hafta check) and see what panned out.
And I’m going to do as many predictions per night as I can muster on this site until I think I’ve covered all I can cover.
I started something of a predictions post last week, talking about convergence. I think a lot of my predictions are going to revolve around the world of mobile, real time web, and cloud.
Here are some broad predictions that I’m obviously going to need to expand a bit for the main post.
Computers will disappear. This is something that Ray Kurzweil said, actually, so I can’t take full credit for it. Here’s what he actually said in his original prediction:
Computers will disappear as distinct physical objects, meaning many will have nontraditional shapes and/or will be embedded in clothing and everyday objects.
I’m pretty sure he originally said this in his 1998 book, The Age of Spiritual Machines. I think we’ve already seen the start of that, and what we’ve seen the hints of now in consumer markets we’ll see go mainstream – devices that we carry around or wear that rely on cloud computing and ubiquitous Internet connections.
I carry two such devices in my pocket every day – my “dumb” phone, which is my private communications portal, and my TwitterPeek, which connects me to my public communications on Facebook and Twitter. Many of you probably have an iPhone or similar device. We’ll see many more of these go mainstream in the near future.
No More Newspapers. TV will Start to Fail. Newsprint is betting big on paywalls, thanks to the ruminations of Rupert Murdoch. This will fail hard. We’ll finally see the death of a major newsprint organization this year. This is an easy prediction to make.
Once one of the big guys gets gone, we’ll start to see them … do more of the same until their death spiral is complete. There is nothing, at this point, that can save the printed news. Even if all the fossils at newsprint organizations decided to get on board with New Media best practices, they’re so far outclassed at this point that it’d never work in time.
We’ll also start to see TV stations start to hit the skids, a process that’ll likely be accelerated by the Comcast-NBCU deal, which will come to fruition late in 2010.
That’s all I can bang out this morning. I’ll probably have some more later today or tomorrow.